El Niño: Preparedness will be the farmer’s biggest advantage

With meteorologists warning that this could be the strongest El Niño this century, bringing  hotter and drier conditions to parts of South Africa in the coming months, Agrimark Managing Director, Arno Abeln, says for farmers who are prepared, the impact may be less severe.

The Food and Agriculture department at the UN forecasts a bigger than 50% probability of agricultural drought across South Africa and other parts of southern Africa brought on by El Niño. The most recent El Niño cycle from 2023/24 left 61 million people in need of assistance, straining livestock, water systems and pasturelands, and pushing more than 8 million people into food insecurity.

According to Agrimark Managing Director Arno Abeln, one of the most important lessons from previous El Niño cycles is that proactive planning remains one of the most effective tools farmers have for managing uncertainty.

He believes water management, irrigation and water storage capacity, revisiting animal feed requirements and access to the right agricultural inputs will play a key role in helping farmers manage uncomfortable periods.

Region-specific patterns, trends and approaches

He says the impact of El Niño is likely to not be uniform. “South Africa's agricultural sector is incredibly diverse, and the impact of changing weather patterns varies considerably between regions and farming operations. Through our work with farmers across KwaZulu-Natal, Limpopo, the Eastern Cape and the Western Cape, we see first-hand that every farming enterprise has its own production requirements and climatic considerations,” he says, adding that Agrimark is invested in understanding the needs of farmers across different regions and providing solutions that are relevant and tailored.

“Fruit farmers in the Western Cape may require more irrigation support, and orchards may require more netting, while farmers in the Northern Cape may need to prioritise animal feed to ensure livestock continue to get the same level of nutrition during drier months,” he explains.

Differences extend beyond geography to the type of farming operation. As an example, he says in pasture-based dairy farming, heat stress in higher temperatures can have a measurable impact on productivity. “Factors such as temperature, walking distances and terrain can all influence dairy cows’ productivity. Even small changes in environmental conditions can have measurable effects on milk production and animal welfare.”

As a result, livestock farmers should review their feed strategies well in advance of drier conditions, as weather conditions can impact both animal nutrition and productivity. Agrimark has ensured it has sufficient supplies of feed, nutritional supplements and vaccines available to support farmers.

Water management becomes increasingly strategic

“Water management is central to agricultural decision-making. Irrigation systems, water storage capacity and the efficient use of available resources are critical considerations, particularly when farmers are preparing for periods of reduced or less predictable rainfall,” says Abeln.

Abeln says around 70% of Agrimark's footprint is focused on South Africa's water-intensive farming regions, which mitigates – to some extent – the impact of El Niño.

“Many of these customers are less reliant on rainfall because they farm using established irrigation infrastructure and water management systems,” says Abeln, adding that water storage becomes a key focus during dry periods. Agrimark’s historical sales data shows that demand for 10 000, 15 000 and 20 000 litre water tanks grow before dry periods.

Agrimark has expanded its offering beyond products to include professional irrigation planning and system design. “Through our irrigation engineering capability, we design systems according to each farmer's specific requirements, taking into account water availability, soil conditions and crop needs.”

Precision farming supports improved decision-making

Abeln says the agricultural sector is undergoing a significant shift towards data-driven decision-making, with precision farming helping farmers improve efficiency and optimise the use of resources.

“Agriculture is becoming increasingly science-based. Farmers are learning that understanding what is happening beneath the surface through soil analysis allows them to make more informed decisions and apply inputs like plant nutrition more precisely.”

Data, says Abeln, should be leveraged during periods of extreme weather – but ideally, should form part of a farmer’s planning three to six months ahead, rather than as a response once conditions have already changed.

He says increasing weather variability makes long-term planning and access to reliable agricultural expertise important, and Agrimark is ready to assist farmers through this period.

“Access to reliable information is becoming just as important as access to inputs. Farmers who combine data, planning and expert advice are often better able to manage risk and adapt to changing conditions.”

“We remain committed to supporting farmers through this period by providing the knowledge, products and solutions needed to make informed decisions,” concludes Abeln.